The US Air Force Reserve’s Hurricane Hunter aircrews flew nine reconnaissance missions into Hurricane Helene from September 23rd to 26th. Their goal was to collect vital data for the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts.
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, part of the 403rd Wing at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi, first ventured into the storm on September 23rd.
Over the week, Helene intensified into a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Florida‘s Big Bend. Weather forecasters rely heavily on satellites for information. However, oceans are vast, data-sparse environments.
Satellites cannot provide crucial details like a hurricane’s minimum sea level pressure, wind speed, or storm structure, all of which are essential for predicting a hurricane’s development and path.
Hurricane Operations
Lieutenant Colonel Ryan Rickert, the 53rd WRS Aerial Reconnaissance Weather Officer, explained that during a tropical storm or hurricane, their aircrews fly into the storm using WC-130J Super Hercules aircraft. They fly at altitudes ranging from 500 to 1,500 feet for low-level investigations and up to 10,000 feet for fix missions.
In the early stages of a storm, the 53rd WRS crews typically fly approximately every 12 hours. As the storm approaches land, they increase their flight frequency to every six hours.
Rickert added that during a fix mission, they can fly through the eye of the storm four to six times. Each pass involves dropping a dropsonde, which collects valuable data on temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, and barometric pressure.
The aircraft also gathers surface wind speed and flight-level data, which is then transmitted to the National Hurricane Center.
Another type of mission they conduct is a survey mission. This allows forecasters to investigate specific areas of interest within the weather system. Captain Amaryllis Cotto, a 53rd WRS ARWO, flew a survey mission into Helene at 10,000 feet before the storm was even named.
“A survey mission is a flexible flight pattern designed to explore certain regions of a system before it’s fully developed,” Cotto explained. “The data collected during these missions helps NHC forecasters understand how the system is behaving and interacting with its surroundings.”
The dropsonde data is also incorporated into weather models, leading to more accurate forecasts for the storm’s track and intensity. “The data we provide is invaluable,” Cotto emphasized.
Every mission, whether it’s a survey, invest, or fix mission, contributes significantly to improving the forecast accuracy by 20-30%.
53rd WRS: Collecting Wx Data Since 1944
The 53rd WRS Hurricane Hunters, the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes, has been collecting vital weather data since 1944. Their operational area spans from the 55-degree longitude line in the Atlantic to the International Dateline in the Pacific.
Other C-130 units receive their missions from the geographic combatant commander they support or the Air Force Reserve Command. The 53rd WRS receives its taskings directly from the National Hurricane Center, a Department of Commerce agency.
Through an interagency agreement, tropical weather reconnaissance is governed by the National Hurricane Operations Plan. This plan requires the squadron to maintain 24/7 operations, capable of flying up to three storms simultaneously and responding within 16 hours. To achieve this, the squadron has 10 full-time and 10 part-time Reserve aircrews available to fly 10 WC-130J Super Hercules.
Role in Weather Forecasting
The Hurricane Hunters play a crucial role in improving forecasts, especially in an era of storms that undergo rapid intensification.
According to the NHC, rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone’s winds increase by at least 34.5 mph in 24 hours, jumping two categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Helene intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 4 in approximately 64 hours, leaving Floridians with little time to prepare or evacuate.
“Storms that move into the Gulf can be difficult to forecast and have caused significant damage in recent years,” Cotto said. “They bring life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds, flooding rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. Some of these systems can rapidly intensify with little warning.”
Summary
Rapid intensification remains a challenging phenomenon to forecast, and weather models still struggle to predict it accurately.
The Hurricane Hunters, however, can analyze the storm in real-time, providing valuable insights into its development. By relaying information about the storm’s intensification rate, NHC forecasters can make timely updates to their watches, warnings, and forecast trends.
Forecasts, storm warnings, and evacuation orders are only effective if people heed them and act. It’s essential for communities to prepare in advance for extreme weather events, including hurricanes.
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